weekend ai reads for 2025-01-31 (#100!)

aside: this is our 100th edition/episode and roughly our two-year anniversary; it’s lovely that an irregular Teams/Slack post has turned into this

thank you all for reading, telling your friends & colleagues, and sharing your (generally) positive comments about That AI Thing

and away we go …

šŸ“° ABOVE THE FOLD: THE STOCK MARKET

ā€œThe Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solventā€

we don’t write about the stock market or valuation much because (a) if we knew anything about that, we wouldn’t be doing this for two years, and (b) nothing here is legal or investment advice

but the Deepseek hysteria made for some interesting and informative reading and analysis

Shares of Microsoft — widely seen as a frontrunner in the AI race because of its ties to industry leader OpenAI - were down 6% in early trading on Thursday after the company said growth in its Azure cloud business would miss third-quarter estimates. "We really want to start to see a clear roadmap to what that monetization model looks like for all of the capital that's been invested," said Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, which holds shares in Microsoft.

The Short Case for Nvidia Stock / YouTube Transcript Optimizer (61 minute read)

It goes beyond that though— the very programming framework that coders use to write low-level code that is optimized for GPUs, CUDA, is totally proprietary to Nvidia, and it has become a de facto standard. If you want to hire a bunch of extremely talented programmers who know how to make things go really fast on GPUs, and pay them $650k/year or whatever the going rate is for people with that particular expertise, chances are that they are going to "think" and work in CUDA.

How much economic growth from AI should we expect, how soon? / Inference Magazine, Substack (sorry) (87 minute read)

  • you can just read the headings to get a sense of their thesis that AI will significantly impact economic growth in the near future, it won’t be as explosive as some say due to various bottlenecks and constraints

DeepSeek AI is next year’s nightmare for Nvidia, today — Nvidia has uniquely high growth expectations for 2026 at a time of surging skepticism on the longevity of the AI capex boom. / Sherwood News (23 minute read)

 

šŸ“» QUOTES OF THE WEEK

The way I would tell this story is that the modern world has created conditions in which it is incredibly lucrative to get very good at statistical inference.

Matt Levine (source)

 

šŸ‘„ FOR EVERYONE

A Test So Hard No AI System Can Pass It — Yet / The New York Times (11 minute read)

But these same models sometimes struggle with basic tasks, like arithmetic or writing metered poetry. That has given them a reputation as astoundingly brilliant at some things and totally useless at others, and it has created vastly different impressions of how fast A.I. is improving, depending on whether you’re looking at the best or the worst outputs.

  • they slightly gloss over the part where no human could pass it either (probably)

  • the benchmark, Humanity's Last Exam

  • this is why no one is scraping social media for data to train a model (yes, we know stylometry is a thing)

  • another article explaining why being poor is less advantageous than not being poor

 

šŸ“š FOUNDATIONS

DeepSeek FAQ / Ben Thomson, Stratechery (29 minute read)

Second is the low training cost for V3, and DeepSeek’s low inference costs. This part was a big surprise for me as well, to be sure, but the numbers are plausible. This, by extension, probably has everyone nervous about Nvidia, which obviously has a big impact on the market.

  • simplified overview of why everyone is talking about Deepseek

Opting out of AI in popular software and services / Stefan Bohacek (3 minute read)

 

šŸš€ FOR LEADERS

Research: Gen AI Changes the Value Proposition of Foreign Remote Workers / Harvard Business review, archive (11 minute read)

This calculation showed that South African workers using gen AI provided 40% more value for money than U.S. workers using gen AI, and 80% more than U.S. workers not using gen AI.

How to use NotebookLM Plus for your business — NotebookLM Plus is now available in more Google Workspace plans, giving millions of businesses new ways to enhance productivity and accelerate knowledge sharing. / Google blog (4 minute read)

 

šŸŽ“ FOR EDUCATORS

The AI Hiring Spree — Colleges face stiff competition as they race to build faculties with expertise. (from August 2024) / Chronicle of Higher Education, archive (9 minute read)

Introducing ChatGPT Gov / OpenAI blog (4 minute read)

Today we’re announcing ChatGPT Gov, a new tailored version of ChatGPT designed to provide U.S. government agencies with an additional way to access OpenAI’s frontier models.

 

šŸ“Š FOR TECHNOLOGISTS

the animations (1, 2) are funny and curious

How to Evaluate LLM Summarization — A practical and effective guide for evaluating AI summaries / Isaac Tham, Towards Data Science, Medium (21 minute read)

Some differences here are: firstly, a higher recall is better, holding summary length constant. You don’t want to score 100% recall with a summary the same length as the source. Secondly, you’d ideally want precision to be close to 100% as possible — hallucinating information is really bad.

  • a more "openā€ model with 405B that claims to do a lot; we have not used it

 

šŸŽ‰ FOR FUN

ChatGPT's mobile users are 85% male, report says / Tech Crunch (5 minute read)

Could Inflicting Pain Test AI for Sentience? — A new study shows that large language models make trade-offs to avoid pain, with possible implications for future AI welfare / Scientific American (9 minute read)

The authors note that the LLMs did not always associate pleasure or pain with straightforward positive or negative values. Some levels of pain or discomfort, such as those created by the exertion of hard physical exercise, can have positive associations.

As of right now, it’s unclear what role AI plays in the project, or whether McAfee’s widow is operating his official page or the AIntivirus account, which has over the past day tweeted up a storm in the late programmer-turned-criminal’s voice.

 

🧿 AI-ADJACENT

Social media represents a shift in power from the content as a product of consumption, to the creator as an artist. Every creative has a unique set of knowledge and identities that can be celebrated because it allows for exactly what audiences are searching for – a curated, niche place to find solace.

via matt, A Better World — Alternate History Simulation

  • change historical events to see what the downstream impacts are

  • for example, modify ā€œEmperor Qin unifies Chinaā€ to ā€œsuggesting a policy of external conquestā€ in 221BC and see how that leads to three world wars

  • the options each time a different

 

ā‹„